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Published fact-check

Massive $760 Million Oil Bet Placed Minutes Before Strait of Hormuz Reopening Announcement

Claim checked

“Just 20 minutes before Trump's announcement that the Strait of Hormuz was open, massive trades hit the market. Investors sold a combined 7,990 lots of Brent crude futures, ​a $760 million bet that oil would go down. These orders were much larger than anything else at the time. The traders made huge gains. Unusual.”

Published April 18, 2026 at 11:53 AM

Verdict

Supported

On April 17, 2026, a massive trade involving 7,990 lots of Brent crude futures—valued at approximately $760 million—was executed just 20 minutes before official announcements that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen to commercial traffic. This well-timed "short" bet preceded a sharp 11% drop in oil prices. The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is reportedly investigating this and several other suspicious trades that occurred immediately before major geopolitical shifts during the conflict.

5 reviewed sources behind this verdict.

Reasoning

The claim is supported by market data and reporting from April 17, 2026. According to LSEG data, the trades occurred between 12:24 GMT and 12:25 GMT, involving nearly 8,000 lots of Brent crude. At 12:45 GMT (roughly 20 minutes later), Iran's foreign minister announced the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump confirmed the opening shortly thereafter on social media.

This is part of a documented pattern of highly profitable, well-timed trades:

  • March 23: A $500 million bet was placed 15 minutes before a Trump announcement regarding Iranian energy infrastructure.
  • April 7: A $950 million bet occurred hours before a ceasefire announcement.
  • April 17: The $760 million bet in question.

Because these trades occurred in a volatile market just before non-public diplomatic breakthroughs became public, they have triggered a formal investigation by the CFTC into potential insider trading.

Source quality: The report is backed by detailed financial data from LSEG and reporting from Reuters and Global Banking & Finance Review, which provide specific timestamps, lot sizes, and dollar values for the trades, as well as confirmation of a regulatory investigation.

Key checks

  • Timing of the $760 Million Trade: Market data confirms that 7,990 lots of Brent crude futures were sold between 12:24 and 12:25 GMT on April 17, 2026, which was approximately 20 minutes before the first official social media announcement of the Strait's reopening at 12:45 GMT.

  • Market Impact and Profitability: Following the announcements by Iran and President Trump, Brent crude prices plummeted by approximately 10-11%, falling to around $89.26 per barrel, making the short positions extremely profitable.

  • Regulatory Investigation: The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has launched an investigation into this specific trade and others (from March 23 and April 7) due to concerns over potential insider trading linked to government policy shifts.

Confidence

High